Quarterly Forecast

Jan. 25, 2026—The Fiscal Insights short-term macroeconomic forecast shows economic growth sustaining well above trend as near-term labor and capital supply both continue contributing to elevated growth. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is projected to rise roughly 20 basis points over the next two years with a broad range of possible outcomes. Finally, the unemployment rate is expected to dip in the near term, as the economy continues expanding at a robust pace.

The quarterly forecast provides a projection of key U.S. macroeconomic variables, including real GDP growth, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the unemployment rate. The underlying forecast model is a state-of-the-art large-scale empirical model designed to account for interactions between different components of the economy, including financial markets and labor markets. The forecast supplements a broad set of insights on the macroeconomic outlook to gain a clear trajectory of the economy.